Introduction:
To address a possible ceasefire and political settlement for the war in Ukraine, the United States and Russia started closed-door talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 3, 2023. Especially lacking from the discussions: Ukraine itself. The choice to exclude Kyiv has sparked international discussion, drawing analogies to Syria’s ten-year conflict, in which peace efforts routinely marginalize opposition voices, aggravating humanitarian crises and so strengthening authoritarian control. This piece digs into the geopolitical significance of the Jeddah negotiations, the unsettling parallels to Syria’s failed diplomacy, and the human toll of top-down peacemaking.
The Jeddah Talks: A Closed-Door Gamble
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hosts the meetings, which represent the first direct U.S.-Russia communication on Ukraine following the fall of the Minsk II agreements in 2022. Reuters claims that the talks concentrated on possible “confidence-building measures,” including a structure for next negotiations, grain export guarantees, and prisoner swaps. However, the lack of Ukrainian delegates has aroused alarms.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy denounced the format, calling it “profoundly unjust” in a televised address. “Any decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine are a fiction,” he asserted. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan justified the negotiations, noting they meant to “test Russia’s seriousness” about peace. But others fear the action risks legitimizing Moscow’s aggression.
Saudi Arabia’s position as mediator is equally problematic. Riyadh has positioned itself as a neutral broker, exploiting its ties to both Washington and Moscow. However, The Wall Street Journal says that Saudi officials privately regard the negotiations as an opportunity to offset Iran’s regional influence and strengthen the kingdom’s worldwide position.
Parallels to Syria’s Astana Process
The lack of conflict-zone stakeholders mimics the 2017 Astana talks on Syria, where Russia, Turkey, and Iran negotiated ceasefires and “de-escalation zones” without any input from Syrian opposition organizations. The Astana approach eventually boosted President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, sidelining moderate rebels and allowed Russian-backed military campaigns that uprooted millions.
“This is déjà vu,” says Rime Allaf, a Syrian expert at the Atlantic Council. “In Syria, the international community prioritized geopolitical deals over local voices. The result was terrible. Ukraine must not follow the same path.”
Syria’s Shadow: Lessons from Exclusion
Syria’s civil conflict presents a sobering tale. Between 2016 and 2018, three rounds of UN-backed Geneva talks collapsed as Russia and Iran pushed for Assad’s inclusion in any transitional government. Meanwhile, the Astana discussions focused primarily on ceasefires, ignoring demands for political reforms or justice for war crimes.
By 2020, Assad’s forces—backed by Russian airstrikes and Iranian militias—had reclaimed 70% of Syria, including Aleppo and Eastern Ghouta. Opposition-held Idlib became a crowded enclave for almost 3 million displaced inhabitants, many still trapped under bombing.
The Rebel-Backed Leadership Void
Syria’s resistance, once represented by the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and resistance Forces (SOC), fractured as international backing faded. “We were told to compromise, but compromise meant surrendering to Assad,” recalls Hadi al-Bahra, a former SOC interim prime minister. “Without a seat at the table, our legitimacy eroded.”
Today, Idlib is administered by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a militant group recognized as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and EU. Moderate rebels accuse HTS of hijacking their cause, as civilians endure aid shortages and periodic regime attacks.
Human Cost: Voices from the Ground
The human consequences of exclusionary diplomacy are stark. In Syria, over 500,000 people have been killed since 2011, and 13 million are displaced. In Ukraine, the UN estimates 9,000 civilian deaths and 6.2 million refugees since Russia’s 2022 invasion.
Idlib’s “Forgotten” Crisis
In Idlib, 75% of residents rely on humanitarian aid to survive. Abu Mohammad, a teacher turned aid worker, describes life under constant threat: “Every day, we fear bombs or starvation. The world negotiates our fate but never asks us what we need.”
Similarly, in Ukraine’s Donbas region, 43-year-old farmer Oleksandr Petrov recounts fleeing his village after shelling destroyed his home. “If they make deals without us, it’s like saying our lives don’t matter,” he says.
Children of War
UNICEF reports that 1.5 million Ukrainian children face PTSD, while in Syria, a generation has grown up knowing only war. Ten-year-old Marwa in Idlib draws pictures of explosions instead of flowers. “I want peace,” she says, “but I don’t know what it looks like.”
Global Reactions and Regional Implications
The Jeddah talks have exposed deepening geopolitical fault lines:
- China: Beijing praised the talks as “pragmatic” and reiterated calls for a “political settlement.” Analysts suggest China seeks to position itself as a peacemaker while strengthening its alliance with Russia.
- EU: European leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, criticized the exclusion of Ukraine. “Peace cannot be imposed by outsiders,” Scholz stated, echoing fears of a Syria-style frozen conflict.
- Turkey: A NATO member with ties to both Kyiv and Moscow, Turkey has offered to host follow-up talks. However, its involvement in Syria—where it backs anti-Assad rebels—complicates its neutrality.
Saudi Arabia’s Double Game
Riyadh’s mediation efforts are part of a broader strategy to diversify alliances. Once a key supporter of Syrian rebels, the kingdom has recently reconciled with Assad, inviting Syria to the Arab League summit in May 2023. Critics argue Saudi Arabia is prioritizing regional stability over human rights.
“Riyadh wants to be seen as a global player, but its Syria policy shows it’s willing to abandon principles for pragmatism,” says Faisal Abbas, editor-in-chief of Arab News.
The Road Ahead: Stalemate or Breakthrough?
Experts are divided on the talks’ potential outcomes:
- Temporary Ceasefire: A short-term truce could allow humanitarian corridors and prisoner exchanges. However, Russia’s insistence on recognizing occupied territories as its own remains a roadblock.
- Partition Scenario: Some analysts warn of a Korea-like division, with Russia controlling Donbas and Crimea. This would mirror Syria’s fragmentation into regime-held and rebel zones.
- Collapse of Talks: Without Ukrainian input, negotiations could fail, escalating hostilities.
Syria’s Warning
Syrian opposition figure Nasr al-Hariri, who resigned as SOC leader in 2021, urges Ukraine to resist external pressure: “We trusted the international community, and they abandoned us. Ukraine must fight for its seat at the table.”
Conclusion: A Crossroads for Diplomacy
The Jeddah talks underscore a recurring flaw in conflict resolution: the exclusion of those most affected. Syria’s decade of devastation stands as a testament to the costs of top-down diplomacy. For Ukraine, the path forward hinges on whether global powers prioritize people over geopolitics.
As Mariya Voloshyna, the displaced teacher from Kharkiv, asks: “If they decide our future without us, what’s the point of peace?” The answer will shape not only Ukraine’s fate but the credibility of international diplomacy itself.
Related Video (Video Link)
Sources Cited:
- Reuters,
- The Wall Street Journal,
- BBC News,
- Al Jazeera,
- Atlantic Council,
- UNICEF, Arab News,
- UN OCHA
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